CSU expert available to discuss Israel-Iran conflict

Media contact:
Allison Sylte
allison.sylte@colostate.edu
Cell: 720-849-1907

Peter Harris, an associate professor of political science at Colorado State University, is available for interviews to offer insight into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. His research encompasses everything from U.S. foreign policy to global relations and international security. 

He responded to some common questions below. 

Question: How is Israel likely to respond to Iran’s attack? 

Harris: What occurred was unprecedented in the sense that it was a direct attack on Israel using weapons launched from Iranian soil. Even though most of the drones and missiles were shot down, Iran was clearly trying to send a message to Israel that its leaders might not want to leave unanswered. And of course, Iran’s attack was itself a response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consular building in Damascus – another unprecedented action. So, the risk of further escalation is still quite high.

Are other regional powers likely to be drawn in?

Jordan and Saudi Arabia assisted in the downing of Iranian missiles as they headed toward Israel, showing that leading Arab governments are still willing to side with Israel against Iran even in the context of the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran-backed militia in Iraq are said to have assisted Iran. Hezbollah in Lebanon is also engaged against Israel. Does this constitute a “horizontal escalation” (geographic widening) of the war, or can the odds of a full-blown regional war be kept in check? 

How will the Iranian attack on Israel affect the course of the war in Gaza? 

Some are speculating that renewed sympathy for Israel —- and hostility toward Iran —- will embolden the Netanyahu government to attack Rafah, after previously being cautious about doing so.

What are America’s interests in all this? 

The U.S. has a strong interest in avoiding a general regional war. Certainly, the U.S. has an interest in avoiding a war with Iran, given Iran’s ability to attack the tens of thousands of U.S. forces based in the Persian Gulf. Yet, the United States is also under significant pressure to aid Israel, too. It follows that Washington ought to try every means available to reduce tensions and move both parties away from war. The worst-case scenario for Washington would be having to decide between joining a devastating war with Iran and being seen to abandon Israel. Neither option would be conducive to U.S. interests, so it’s imperative that President Biden help to bring about a situation where this choice never has to be made.

Does this mean aid to Israel — and Ukraine — is more likely to be passed by the U.S. Congress? 

My answer is probably yes. These two conflicts have been linked for the purposes of passing a funding bill; and so if there is more pressure to assist Israel (against Hamas but also Iran) then Ukraine may be a beneficiary of this newfound sense of urgency.