Over the weekend, the Russian invasion of Ukraine came closer to Moscow than ever before when the Wagner Group – a Russian paramilitary organization – took over a military headquarters and marched toward Russia’s capital in a 24-hour rebellion that the group’s leader called a protest against a defense ministry he’s accused of mismanagement and corruption.

Peter Harris, an associate professor of political science at Colorado State University, wrote a Twitter thread detailing his take on the situation as an expert on international affairs. In the thread, he called Russian president Vladimir Putin’s authority “shot” and said he was “lucky” that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mercenary commander who led the rebellion, accepted a deal to go into exile in Belarus.

“These were extraordinary events,” Harris said.

And they could have an impact on the war in Ukraine. Here are a few questions SOURCE asked Harris about the attempted rebellion and what it could mean in the coming months.

SOURCE: You said this situation has rendered Putin’s authority “shot.” Why is that, and what could happen next?

While there is much we don’t know, it’s fair to say that the Wagner group’s mutiny has raised serious doubts about state capacity in Russia, and President Putin’s position at home. It was quite shocking to see a group of mercenaries take control of government buildings (in Rostov-on-Don) and then advance hundreds of miles toward Moscow without being stopped in their tracks. How could this happen?

We must assume that the Russian security services didn’t know of the incursion in advance – which, itself, would be a humiliating intelligence failure – and/or that they couldn’t prevent it from happening. Putin went on television to ask that the mutineers lay down their arms, but the fact remains that Wagner fighters could have approached Moscow if they had wanted to. It is reported that Wagner forces shot down several Russian aircraft. As far as we know, they have not yet been punished for this.

Putin looked weak. For a brief but historic moment, Putin did not control what was happening in Russia. I think Putin is still quite popular among the Russian citizenry and he faces no serious political challengers, but I can only imagine that ordinary citizens will have been aghast to see the war in Ukraine spilling over onto Russian soil in this way. For the past year, Putin has managed to insulate Muscovites from the worst of the war. This week, the war came home.

However, we should not assume that this is the beginning of the end for Putin. Even if it’s true that the regime is weaker and more fragile than previously believed, we should remember that weak and fragile regimes can last for a long time. The question is whether elites around Putin – in the military and the intelligence services, in particular – conspire to remove him now that his authority and legitimacy have been challenged in such a conspicuous way. There’s only a low likelihood of this happening, but it’s more possible to imagine today than it was a few weeks ago.

How does the uprising against military command in Russia impact the situation on the ground in Ukraine, if at all?

The war in Ukraine might not be directly affected by the Wagner mutiny. First, Wagner forces had been pulled back from the frontlines anyway, and so weren’t essential to defending Russian positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

That said, recent events cannot be good for Russian morale. Prigozhin justified his mutiny as a “protest” at how the Russian war effort has been prosecuted. This message seems to have resonated with people, as well as regular Russian troops. So, it’s possible that this farce will contribute to a greater collapse in morale and even worse performance on the battlefield.

Alternatively, Putin might be motivated to wage his war against Ukraine with renewed vigor and viciousness. He may decide that his best strategy now is to become more repressive, aggressive and intolerant of opposition to the war. We will have to wait and see.

You’re an expert on international affairs – what are you watching for next?

There is speculation that Russia and Belarus might announce a formal union in the next few weeks – so this is something to watch for. They already made moves toward a sovereign union in the past (the “Union State”) but it’s possible that this idea will be resurrected soon, and could be used to distract people from the Wagner fiasco.

There’s also the question of what happens to Prigozhin and his fighters. Putin promised to let them leave the country, to Belarus. But how credible is this assurance? I suspect Putin would like to assert his authority over Prigozhin if given the opportunity. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising if Prigozhin is arrested or assassinated.

We should also look to see how China reacts. Beijing has good relations with Putin because he has always brought stability to Russia, which with China shares a long border. But if Putin begins to crumble and he can no longer serve as a stabilizing force in North Asia, then Beijing may become concerned.

What are people not talking about right now when it comes to Russia, Putin and Ukraine that they should be?

The risk of nuclear weapons being used is still an important consideration. Too many people are nonchalant about nuclear weapons, which I think is a mistake. It is possible that Russia uses nuclear weapons out of desperation, or that nuclear weapons fall into the wrong hands in the event of domestic turmoil. Then there is the question of Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. Many people in the West are sympathetic to this view – and there are strong reasons for supporting Ukraine’s membership in NATO – but it’s important that we’re clear on the implications. It would mean that, in the event of a future Russia-Ukraine war, the United States would be obliged to fight Russia in a war that could turn nuclear. This is something we should all have a say on.