“It’s hard to go all these years and then make your worst forecast after 30 years,” said climatologist William Gray, 84, the man who pioneered the science of preseason predictions. “It’s not very good progress.” Gray, founder of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, and colleague Philip Klotzbach recently released their closely watched forecast for 2014, which calls for just three hurricanes, with only one becoming a major storm reaching Category 3 or higher.

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